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⚓ Orbit — Pre-IPO Intelligence

TikTok's ~$300B parent — more revenue than Meta, still private.

ByteDance generates more revenue than Meta yet stays private under a U.S.–China overhang. Recent buybacks value it near $300B. A U.S. listing is a geopolitics question as much as a finance one. Bidness tracks every signal.

Last valuation
$0B
Mar 2026
Δ vs prior round
+0.0%
S-1 prob (12mo)
0%
Bob's read
Live signals
1 of 4
Last refresh
9w ago
Sources
CB Insights · Bloomberg · Reuters
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03 / Valuation

The price of staying private

$64B$130B$197B$263B$330B$75B$180B$220B$300BJan 20Dec 24Mar 26
Jan 20 RoundJun 21 RoundDec 24 BuybackMar 26 Buyback
04 / Telemetry

Live read on the company

Implied valuation
~$300B
· Buyback level
2026 employee buyback
Revenue
> Meta
2025
Reported Q1 2025
IPO odds
Low
Divestiture overhang
U.S.–China
05 / Signals

What we're watching

S-01
◐ warming

U.S. Divestiture

TikTok ownership rules remain the gating factor for any U.S. listing.

40% intensity
S-02
● hot

Revenue Engine

Revenue tops Meta; on fundamentals the business is more than IPO-ready.

80% intensity
S-03
○ cold

Listing Venue

Hong Kong vs U.S. unresolved. No concrete filing signal yet.

25% intensity
S-04
◐ warming

Buyback Cadence

Employee buybacks (~$300B) are the only live price-discovery mechanism.

45% intensity
⚓ Bob's Take

More revenue than Meta, ~$300B in buybacks, and the only mega-private whose IPO is a political question first and a financial one second. The TikTok divestiture overhang caps near-term listing odds. Watch Washington, not the bankers.

updated Jun 13, 2026
06 / Fleet

How to play it in the public market

07 / Timeline

The road to first trade

  1. 2026

    Divestiture overhang

    U.S. TikTok ownership rules remain the gating factor for any listing.

  2. 2025

    Buybacks near $300B

    Employee buybacks reset the mark to ~$300B as revenue tops Meta.

  3. 2021

    Peak private valuation

    Hits ~$180B before regulatory pressure in the U.S. and China.

  4. 2012

    ByteDance founded

    Zhang Yiming founds ByteDance; Douyin/TikTok become a global force.