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⚓ Orbit — Pre-IPO Intelligence SPCX · Nasdaq · speculated

SpaceX went public — SPCX closed its first day up 19%.

The biggest IPO in history. SpaceX raised $75B on June 12, priced at $135, opened at $150, and closed at $160.95 — a ~$2.2T company, making Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. Here's how the debut played out.

Last valuation
$0.00T
Jun 2026
Δ vs prior round
+0.0%
S-1 prob (12mo)
0%
Bob's read
Live signals
2 of 4
Last refresh
13w ago
Sources
SEC EDGAR · Bloomberg · Reuters · Polymarket · Sacra · Company filings
Get the alert when SpaceX files

No spam. S-1 alerts + Bob Takes only.

02 / Filing Window

When does the S-1 drop?

⚓ Bob's estimate
12JUN2026
— days
100% confidence
Bob's analyst estimate, not an announced date
Resolved · live
100%
SpaceX IPO (June 12, 2026)
updated 2026-06-13
view on resolved
Earliest plausible
Jun 2026
Typical S-1 → first trade is 2-4 weeks. Earliest pricing window opens mid-June if no SEC comments.
Latest plausible
Q4 2026
Window extends if SEC comments, rate volatility, or Starship setback delays roadshow. Bridge loan matures Sept 2027 — IPO proceeds must repay it.
Bob's filing-month probability
⚓ Forecasts · Bob vs Polymarket vs you
Cast your vote →
Bob
$1.75T
Polymarket
$1.85T
Community · 5
$1.50T
$1.38T$1.59T$1.79T$2.00T
03 / Valuation

The price of staying private

$85B$669B$1.25T$1.84T$2.42T$100B$180B$350B$800B$1.25T$2.20TOct 21Dec 25Jun 26
Oct 21 PrimaryDec 23 TenderDec 24 TenderDec 25 TenderFeb 26 xAI mergerJun 26 IPO · SPCX
Last private price
$420
Dec 2025
pre 5-for-1 split
Implied valuation
$800B
+100% YoY
last verified secondary
S-1 price range
TBD
· awaiting amended S-1/A
price-dependent fields blank in filing
Consensus cap
$1.5-2.5T
sell-side range
Polymarket 37% over $2T
Confirmed ticker
SPCX
Nasdaq + Nasdaq Texas
dual-listed
IPO syndicate
23 banks
5 JBRs: GS·MS·BofA·Citi·JPM
per S-1 cover
04 / Telemetry

Live read on the company

IPO offer price
$135
· 555M+ shares
Priced June 11
Day-1 close
$160.95
+19%
Opened at $150
Market cap
~$2.2T
Intraday > $2.25T
Nasdaq: SPCX
Capital raised
$75B
Largest ever
Tops Saudi Aramco
04A / The Deals

Three deals buried in the S-1

The headline number is $80B raised at ~$2T. The story is in the footnotes.

Anthropic compute deal

$45B / 36 months
$1.25B / month

Anthropic will pay SpaceX $1.25B per month through May 2029 — approximately $45B in aggregate — for compute capacity on xAI data centers (now part of the SpaceX consolidated entity after the March 2025 X Merger). Either party may terminate with 90 days notice. Ramp phase May–Jun 2026 priced at a reduced fee.

S-1, p. 12

Cursor option

$60B implied — payable in SPCX
$60B in stock

SpaceX holds a 30-day call option on Cursor at $60B implied equity value, payable entirely in SPCX Class A shares. Window opens on the earlier of (a) 7 trading days post-IPO or (b) September 30, 2026. If SpaceX walks: $1.5B termination fee plus an $8.5B deferred services obligation. The first major test of SPCX as acquisition currency.

S-1, "Material Agreements"

EchoStar spectrum acquisition

$19.6B — FCC-approved
$19.6B total

Closing now: $11.1B equity (261.8M SPCX shares at $42.40, pre-split basis) plus up to $8.5B debt assumption. FCC approval received May 12, 2026. Expected close November 30, 2027. Adds AWS-4, MSS, and 2 GHz S-band spectrum to the Starlink Direct-to-Cell roadmap — eliminating EchoStar as a competing spectrum holder.

S-1, "Subsequent Events"
⚓ The Musk callout

A $54,080 salary.
A 1 billion share grant.

2025 salary
$54,080
Jan 2026 grant
1B Class B shares
Class B (10 votes/share)
Vesting milestones
15 market-cap milestones from $500B to $7.5T
+ Mars colony milestone

Musk's 2025 salary was $54,080. In January 2026 the board granted him 1B Class B shares vesting on 15 market-cap milestones from $500B to $7.5T plus a Mars colony milestone. He also receives 302M xAI replacement shares tied to a Mars data-center milestone. The grant is the largest CEO compensation package ever filed.

Plus: 302M xAI replacement shares (Mars data-center milestone)
S-1, "Executive Compensation"
05 / Signals

What we're watching

S-01
◉ live

Public — SPCX

Trading on Nasdaq since June 12. The pre-IPO watch is resolved; price discovery is live.

100% intensity
S-02
◐ warming

Lockup Expiry

Insider/employee lockups typically unwind ~90–180 days post-IPO — the next big supply event to watch.

45% intensity
S-03
◐ warming

Starlink Spin-Off

A separate Starlink listing remains the live sequel thesis. Pure-play subscriber economics could trade richer.

50% intensity
S-04
● hot

Index Inclusion

At ~$2.2T, eligibility for major index inclusion is a forced-buying catalyst worth tracking.

65% intensity
⚓ Bob's Take

SpaceX is public. $135 offer, +19% to $160.95 on day one, ~$2.2T cap, $75B raised — the biggest IPO ever, and Musk is the first trillionaire. The pre-IPO tracking is done; SPCX now trades like any flagship. Next watch items: the lockup expiry and a possible Starlink spin-off.

updated Jun 13, 2026
06 / Fleet

How to play it in the public market

07 / Timeline

The road to first trade

  1. 2026-06-12

    IPO — SPCX debuts

    Prices at $135, opens at $150, closes +19% at $160.95. $75B raised — the largest IPO in history. Musk becomes the first trillionaire.

  2. 2026-02

    xAI merger at $1.25T

    The price-setting event before the float.

  3. 2025-12

    $800B tender

    Valuation doubles in six months.

  4. 2024-12

    $350B tender

    Largest private valuation in history at the time.

  5. 2002-03

    SpaceX founded

    Elon Musk founds Space Exploration Technologies to cut launch costs.

09 / Forecasts

Bob vs Polymarket vs you

Every forecast is appended once. None edited, none deleted. When SPCX prices, we publish the receipts.

Bob
$1.75T
May 21
Polymarket
$1.85T
May 21
Community
$1.50T
May 30
$1.38T$1.53T$1.69T$1.84T$2.00TMay 21now
10 / Receipts

Who's the bold call?

Distance from consensus. Lowest is most aligned with the crowd. Highest is the most contrarian (or the most wrong — we'll find out together).

#
Forecaster
Avg distance
Specs
1
Polymarket
8.8%
1
2
Bob
15.4%
5
3
Community
17.1%
5
Receipts pivot to a full accuracy scorecard the moment SPCX prices.