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⚓ Orbit — Pre-IPO Intelligence

The $159B payments giant that doesn't need to IPO.

Stripe hit a $159B tender valuation in February on $1.9T of 2025 payment volume. It keeps creating liquidity privately via tenders rather than filing. Bidness tracks whether — and when — that changes.

Last valuation
$0B
Feb 2026
Δ vs prior round
+0.0%
S-1 prob (12mo)
0%
Bob's read
Live signals
2 of 4
Last refresh
9w ago
Sources
Stripe annual letter · Nasdaq Private Market · Polymarket
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03 / Valuation

The price of staying private

$43B$76B$109B$142B$175B$95B$50B$70B$92B$159BMar 21Feb 24Feb 26
Mar 21 Series HMar 23 Down roundFeb 24 TenderFeb 25 TenderFeb 26 Tender
04 / Telemetry

Live read on the company

Tender valuation
$159B
+74% vs early 2025
Feb 2026 tender
2025 payment volume
$1.9T
+34% YoY
Annual letter
IPO odds
Low
Prefers tenders
No S-1
05 / Signals

What we're watching

S-01
● hot

Tender Cadence

The $159B February tender is how Stripe creates liquidity without filing.

70% intensity
S-02
○ cold

S-1 Watch

No filing signal. The Collisons have said public scale does not require public markets.

20% intensity
S-03
● hot

Volume Growth

$1.9T in 2025 payment volume, +34% — the engine that lets it stay private.

72% intensity
S-04
◐ warming

Peer Pressure

If Databricks and the AI labs list well, Stripe faces investor pressure to follow.

45% intensity
⚓ Bob's Take

$159B tender, $1.9T in volume, and a CEO who's said the quiet part out loud: Stripe can reach public scale without public markets. Tenders, not an S-1, are how the Collisons create liquidity. Lowest filing urgency of the five.

updated Jun 13, 2026
06 / Fleet

How to play it in the public market

07 / Timeline

The road to first trade

  1. 2026-02

    $159B tender

    Tender nearly doubles the mark on $1.9T of annual volume.

  2. 2023

    Down round to $50B

    Raises at a cut valuation to fund employee tax obligations.

  3. 2021

    Peak at $95B

    Series H makes Stripe the most valuable U.S. startup at the time.

  4. 2010

    Stripe founded

    Patrick and John Collison launch developer-first payments.